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Old 01-12-2019, 12:08 PM   #1
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Default How accurate are the crowd calendars? (undercovertourist.com)

It just hit me that we are planning our entire stay based on the crowd calendar at undercovertourist.com. For this reason our itinerary is not really how I had envisioned our first Disney trip with kids.

For example, we are staying at Bay Lake and we would like to start at Magic Kingdom on our first day there -Wednesday April 10th but that is showing as as busy day for that park so we have moved Magic Kingdom to Friday instead.

Intuitively I would think Magic Kingdom would be the first stop for most families when they arrive on the weekend or Monday so it was a shock to me they have that as being more busy on Wednesday.

I guess I am just wondering how much weight I should give this crowd calendar. If its not very accurate I would prefer to just plan our trip in the order that makes most sense for our family.

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Old 01-12-2019, 10:49 PM   #2
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Old 01-12-2019, 11:02 PM   #3
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I would consult a few different crowd calendars. Iíve never used the UT one, but I have used others. Touring Plans and WDW Prep School come to mind. Some crowd calendars take into account not only historical crowd levels and holidays, but also whether there are going to be any groups at WDW for things like competitions and tournaments, etc.

Unless there is something specific going on at the MK on Wednesday April 10th, I would not expect the crowds to be heavier that day than on Friday of that same week. I would not base my trip around what the crowd calendars say because some (like the one on Touring Plans) continually update. I use the calendars more for time of year estimates and not necessarily specific day estimates.
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Old 01-12-2019, 11:12 PM   #4
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I'm no longer a fan of them as a whole. I find most to be contradictory and rather inaccurate. Some years some are closer to realities than others, but I really don't think one is great or always right.

In short, don't sweat it. Go with your plans and don't worry.
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Old 01-12-2019, 11:18 PM   #5
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I agree with JC and helen Ö time of year and not specific days. Visits always seem more crowded than expected. I'm no longer a fan of them either.
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Old 01-12-2019, 11:43 PM   #6
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Many are based on extra magic hours...meaning parks with EMH are not recommended due to higher than normal expected crowd levels. I have found crowd calendars to be rather accurate and tend to navigate by suggestions. That said, you can also do an EMH park if you tour accordingly. For example, we may go to an EMH park but plan to leave by noon-ish or 1pm. We have found that morning EMH at the busiest of times (ie Christmas, NYE) have been some of the best times to be in the park. FWIW.
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Old 01-12-2019, 11:55 PM   #7
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I think that you also need to be mindful of the Early Morning Hours paid events at some of the parks where you can get in an hour or so early (including a breakfast). I try to avoid parks on those days since they may already be crowded by the time the park opens to the public.

I have used the Undercover Tourist calendars on our trips the past 2 years for planning and have found them to be pretty reliable.
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Old 01-13-2019, 10:40 AM   #8
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I donít hold much stock in crowd calendars like I used to. Too many changes in the past few years. FP+ really changed things up, and Disney pulls rides/cars out of service, TOT running an elevator short on low attendance days, etc. Disney manipulates the wait times and it makes it more difficult now.
That said, we always do Magic Kingdom on a Wednesday. I too, believe that most people arrive on a weekend or a Friday and go to MK first. Also the weekends are crazy with local people as well.
I always do Epcot on a Monday/Tuesday, and then MK on Wednesday and fill in Thursday and Friday with AK and HS.
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Old 01-13-2019, 10:47 AM   #9
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First Disney trip with kids? And you're staying at Bay Lake? Definitely start at Magic Kingdom. Can't speak to the crowd calendars, but I would definitely start a first Disney trip at Magic Kingdom.
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Old 01-13-2019, 10:51 AM   #10
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The calendars are for the most part accurate based on general trends/times of year. If you are going at a known busy time of the year, and you want to be at a park when it is least crowded, arrive at the gate 30 minutes before the park opens and for the next couple of hours you will have shorter wait times, no matter the day. After that, the EMH park will be more crowded than the non-EMH parks.
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